Sensei Michael Investments

It seems that investment products without tacit government backing would fall eventually. BitCoin Club has now been investigated by the US government for possible Ponzi scheme involvements. The company has been raided and their accounts frozen. Under such circumstances, even IF (and that is a big IF) the legal team proves their innocence, the company is effectively done for. Nobody can invest with them under the present circumstances, and by the time they emerge, their finances would have been in shreds. I have already made more than twice my investment with them, and have already withdrawn my BTC before the event. It reminds me so uncannily of how I liquidated all my investments in the SGX before the big crash, investing the money in the best investment of my life - my wedding and marriage. Right now my money is in Funding Societies , a crowd funding site for local businesses. I have seen a 6.28% p.a. returns from it, nothing to shout about compared to my HYIP, but something to ke...

It has been nearly a year since I last invested for a monthly return of about 8% each month. The company just reminded me that my yearly investment cycle (the contract locks my investment for a year) is up, and I should choose either to renew at a returns of 3% less each month (about 7% after calculating for FOREX) or to withdraw and to start a new contract for a one time fee of 3% of the investment of USD1000. I thought the math was very straightforward and somewhat of a no-brainer. I have chosen to withdraw and to start a new contract. The other HYIP I have started (which I have expressed doubt in my previous post ) has collapsed. There is a reason why I only invest a tiny amount for such HYIP. After this episode, I have told myself not to invest any more into any HYIP where the leverage just does not work out, or where the outlay is so ridiculously low (USD10, anyone?) that it being a money game is just so clear. I have to learn to listen to my hunches when it comes to investments. ...

High Yield Investment Products/Programmes (HYIP) are flighty little creatures. A majority of them are little more than ponzi schemes, sucking in incoming money to pay off investors, rather than truly investing in any products. The rest of them started out with noble intentions, with traders offering high returns using their trading system, similar to hedge funds. Most of these highly leveraged trading systems (FOREX, futures, options, margin trading), however, can be comparable to handling a knife by the edge. It is very easy for huge drawdowns to occur and when that happens, the trader may end up desperate - and thus convert his HYIP into another ponzi. I used to run a HYIP that encountered the drawdown. Unlike George Soros, I did not have the capital to deal with the drawdown and ended up closing the fund to protect my investors. So when I encountered this Forex-based HYIP, I was quite sceptical. What made me plunge down the initial investment of just USD1300 was the fact that my upl...

I have been inactive for so long in OptionsXpress, my choice of US-based online broker, that they have cancelled my account (and without informing me!). In this time and age, one would have thought an automated e-mail can be sent to the customer first, checking out if they want to keep their account, before killing said account. I can still track everything manually, so it is not really an issue, though. QQQ Portfolio Stock: US$82,764.00 Cash: US$61,141.85 Total: US$143,905.85 Benchmark Oct 2007: +13.40% A sell signal flashed, so I sold off 100 shares, maintaining more ballast. I have stopped following my other portfolios. The Sorry Portfolio should seriously be liquidated and a reset given to it. Without significant leverage, the FOREX portfolio is as sorry as the sorry portfolio. The system seriously likes something a bit more volatile, and so far QQQ has shown that aspect.

The portfolios check were made on 26 December 2011, which happened to be a holiday in the NYSE. The system I am using does not require ticking signals - historical data can also be used. QQQ Portfolio Stock: US$79,633.60 Cash: US$46,887.65 Total: US$126,521.25 Benchmark Oct 2007: +22.61% No signals – all quiet on the western front. Sorry Portfolio Stock: US$104,263.40 Cash: US$9,229.72 Total: US$113,493.12 Component: KO610, MCD520, PG140 Benchmark: +13.49% Another sell signal flashed, and I liquidated another 30 shares of MCD. Most readers who understand how stock trading should work will understand that I am basically taking in ballast when the boat is rising. The key is in knowing when, and how much, and this system (principal aim: protect capital) works as it should. SGD/CNY SGD: $50,000 CNY: ¥10,185.37 SGD Value: $99,847.20 Benchmark: +0.15% No signals. All quiet on the western front. The historical swing of the SGD and CNY is not very large and is unlikely to trigger any signals. ...

It is a lull period right now, with no signals for the QQQ Portfolio, and a strong Buy signal (but no ballast left) for the Boring Portfolio. I have had readers asking me about the Boring Portfolio. I have more or less given up on this, and in real life would have liquidated it. It may be interesting to note, though, that had I not used the ballast system for this portfolio, it would have been torn to shreds a long time ago. Boring Portfolio Components Citigroup, Inc 700 shares Coca Cola Company 610 shares McDonalds Corp 590 shares Proctor and Gamble Co 140 shares Exposure to banking was bad. Really bad. But it was remarkable how much the entire portfolio held out against the storm, precisely because it had ballast.

Boring Portfolio Stock: US$74,783.90 Cash: US$364.85 Total: US$75,148.75 Still flashing a buy signal, but ballast is insufficient. Nothing to buy. Nothing exciting (which is good). QQQ Portfolio Stock: US$81,887.40 Cash: US$17,308.50 Total: US$99,195.90 Liquidated some stock, as a price signal indicated I should. Half-year Benchmark A friend I got to know who used to be in the finance sector asked me for the half-year benchmark. Using my portfolio values on 11 March as my base, I would have gotten a 19.99% gain in my boring portfolio, and a whooping 44.34% gain for the QQQ portfolio. This is expected, as the boring portfolio consisted of mainly safe dividend-bearing stocks, but also because it was exposed to a banking stock at the beginning - without the ballast system put in place, the portfolio would have been torn to shreds. As it stands, the system managed to salvage as much of the situation as it could, and I am very glad of the gentleman whom I consider my mentor, who taught me t...

Sir John Templeton passed away on 8 July 2008 at the age of 95. Another legend has left our world, but his ideas for investing will not be forgotten. From the article " Eight Lessons From Sir Templeton " by Mr John Christy at Forbes: All investing is global . Always take a contrarian approach ... ... But make sure the fundamentals are intact . Let valuation be your guide . Don't be afraid of big bets . Don't rush into positions . Get away from the crowd. Don't worry about the direction of the market. The advice he gave still holds in today's volatile markets, and is something I will remember as I continue my journey towards my return to fund management.

Boring Portfolio Stock: USD77,281 Cash: USD27,073 It's already 19 weeks and nothing much has moved - but that's because it is supposed not to move much! This is an experimentation with a very capital-protected portfolio, where capital protection takes precedence over everything else (even gains). Astute investors would have noted, though, that the eroding USD (I do not live in the US) is slowly killing the value of our stagnant portfolio. I will continue working with this portfolio for at least a year or two, if not just to test its viability for the system. QQQ Portfolio Stock: USD49,735 Cash: USD50,000 I'm testing out a new system for a more violatile QQQ ETF in the States. Again, I put my naval thinking to the system - a substantial ballast of USD50,000 (half the portfolio) is set aside to watch for buying opportunities when the typhoons come. Let us see how it performs over the weeks. As usual, I will check on the system each week.

Current Portfolio Stock: USD69,697 Cash: USD27,073 Even though the previous weeks turmoil appeared to be a prime opportunity, the fact that everything has settled down means that my system has made the correct prediction by not buying in on the dips. Interestingly, if I have been buying mutual funds instead of stocks (and so commissions would not be a problem at all), I might possibly buy into the dips instead, and I would recommend doing so indeed.

Current Portfolio Stock: USD68,979 Cash: USD27,073 Two of the counters dropped in value, but the system I'm using does not allow me to do anything yet - I'm supposed to buy now (buy shades when it's raining), but the amount is too insignificant for me to take action. Too bad for the brokers. This is one reason why one must develop a system, and follow it. This takes the emotion out of investing. The market and the stock does not care whether you love it, or whether you hate it, whether you want it to rise or (rarely) to fall. It functions regardless of your emotions. So don't fall into that trap. I fell into it before, and vowed never to let it happen again.

Current Portfolio Stock: USD73,283 Cash: USD27,073 No action. Thank God for patience. Who knows what will happen the next week? But never force something to happen yourself. You lose money, and someone else laughs all the way to the bank.

Current Portfolio Stock: USD73,424 Cash: USD27,073 Hardly moved at all - just what we want. How do you earn on such a portfolio, my reader wonders? I'm merely using stocks to do what they were meant to do in the first place - to own a piece of a good company, and to participate in its income. All companies in my portfolio are dividend-paying, and tends not to be violatile. Perhaps the weekly checkup could be changed to a fortnightly or monthly one. At this point of time, though, I still prefer it weekly.

Current Portfolio Cash: USD27073 Stocks: USD72780 In the three weeks since I've begun my test portfolio, using only one of my investment ideas (I've two others), the portfolio has hardly changed. This is expected of Investment Idea #1 - dividend paying stocks tend to be low in violatility, and the large outlay of cash (about 20%) served as ballast (critics call it deadweight, but their strategy is different from mine). At this point of time, I have not completed my studies and calculations for my next two strategies. It'd take some time, since I'm not a full-time fund manager (and would not go full-time for at least 5 years). I still feel I need to study more, and seek further understanding, so I would like to take it slow. I will not repeat the mistake of my first fund.

I've finally taken the plunge to put my ideas into test with a Virtual Trading Account. I hope to be able to share with readers (and potential investors) some of the ideas behind my investments. With a simulated portfolio of USD100k, I made the plunge on 25 May 07 in the US market (the one I'm the most familar with). I'll be spending time studying and testing out the ideas I have on the SGX and the Shanghai markets as well - this would widen potential investing markets for my investors. I placed USD73,472 into just 3 leading dividend-paying stocks in 2 major industries (F&B and Finance), and parked the rest (USD26,752) in cash. Astute readers would have noticed the cash figures do not match - not only did I account for commissions, but I bought OTM calls covered by the stocks, to get some income first, essentially treating my stocks as rental units.